Economy

The statistics published in the United States were somewhat reassuring. Retail sales rose by 0.2% m/m in February, but less than expected (+0.6%). Confidence among homebuilder’s continued to deteriorate (from 42 to 39) in March, whereas a stabilization was expected. However, activity data surprised on the upside in February: building permits (-1.2% m/m vs -1.4% est.) and especially housing starts (+11.2% m/m vs +1.4% est.). Industrial production also surprised positively (+0.7% m/m vs +0.2% est.). In the eurozone, household confidence disappointed, falling from -13.6 to -14.5 in March. Finally, in China, industrial production (+5.9% y/y vs +5.3% est.), retail sales (+4% y/y vs +3.8% est.) and investments (+4.1% y/y vs +3.2% est.) exceeded expectations.

Planetary Boundaries

According to the International Energy Agency, the hydraulic fracturing techniques developed in the oil and gas industry could be put to good use for renewable sources such as geothermal energy. In a special report, the agency estimates that 800 GW of additional geothermal capacity could be developed, for an annual production of 6,000 TWh, equivalent to the current combined electricity demand of the US and India.

Markets

As expected, the Fed did not cut rates, but the slowdown in its balance sheet reduction is positive, as is the ratification in Germany of the new Chancellor’s fiscal bazooka. Equities rose everywhere, in the US (0.6%), Europe (0.6%), Switzerland and the emerging markets (1.1%). Gold (+0.9%) hit an all-time high and long rates eased in the developed countries (US: -7bp, Switzerland: -8bp, Europe: -10/-12bp). Coming up this week: manufacturing and services PMI, house prices, household confidence, durable goods orders and PCE inflation in the US; manufacturing and services PMI, M3 growth and confidence indices (economy, industry and services) in the eurozone; house prices, industrial production, retail sales and investments in China.

Swiss Market

Coming up this week: Consensus Forecast (KOF), Q4 balance of payments (SNB), February accommodation statistics (FSO), spring economic forecasts (KOF) and March economic barometer (KOF).The following companies are due to release results: Metall Zug, Baloise, Medacta, Peach Property, Skan, Orascom DH, Bioversys, GAM, Vaudoise, Warteck Invest, Salt, Schlatter and Edisun Power.

Equities

MICRON (Satellite) reported Q2 results ahead of expectations, with sales of $8.05 billion and EPS of $1.43, driven by strong demand for HBM memory and AI servers. The Data Centers division reached a record level, while the guidance for Q3 confirms the momentum, despite pressure on margins. We reiterate our positive view on the stock.

NVIDIA (Core Holdings) took advantage of its GTC 2025 conference to reaffirm its ambition to dominate the next phase of computing capacity expansion, centred on inference. Faced with the emergence of new players, the company intends to maintain its lead thanks to an accelerated roadmap (Blackwell Ultra, Rubin, Feynman) and close integration between hardware and software.

SANDOZ (Satellite entry): as a leader in generics & biosimilars with a rich pipeline, Sandoz is well positioned to take advantage of opportunities in this market over the next five years. Management expects sales growth of 5%/year and an EBITDA margin improvement of 390-590bp by 2028, resulting in EPS growth of c.15%/year. With the PE back to 13x (i.e. a PEG of 0.87x), we advise to take advantage of the recent fall in the share price to buy.



Bonds

In the US, the Fed kept its key rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, as expected. Revised economic forecasts point to fears of stagflation. At the same time, the Fed announced a slowdown in the reduction of its balance sheet (-$5bn/month vs -$25bn), which was beneficial for rates (2Y -7bp/10Y -7bp). In Europe, the German recovery plan was approved by the Bundesrat. Nevertheless, we saw a rally in EU yields (10Y Bund -11bp/BTP -12bp), with attention now focused on next week’s US tariff announcements.

Sentiment of traders

Stock markets

The week is likely to be another volatile one for the markets. US consumer confidence figures, the main contributor to the country’s growth, are due on Tuesday, and PCE inflation will be unveiled on Friday. In addition, we are likely to continue to live to the rhythm of the announcements on US tariffs, which will take effect on April 2. We remain cautious.

Currencies

In a sluggish currency market, traders remain focused on the US tariffs due to be announced on April 2. Negotiations between Russia and the US could lead to volatility. The €/$ is firming slightly to 1.0845, sup. 1.0765 res. 1.0920. The $/CHF remains trapped in the 0.8797-0.8860 range. The CHF remains firm at €/CHF 0.9574, sup. 0.9480, res. 0.9620. The £ fails to break the 1.3010 res. and stagnates at £/$ 1.2955, sup. 1.2860. The ounce of gold is trading at $3024/oz, sup. $3013 res. $3056.

Today’s graph

US retail sales change 2023-2025 bar chart.

Performances

Financial market table showing indices and yields.

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