Economy

The statistics published in the United States tended to disappoint. Household confidence fell from 105.3 to 98.3, more than expected (102.5) in February. Similarly, new home sales contracted by 10.5% m/m in January (vs -2.6% est.). While household incomes rose more than expected in January (+0.9% m/m), household spending unexpectedly fell (-0.2% m/m). PCE inflation was in line with expectations (+0.3% m/m; +2.5% y/y). The rise in durable goods orders was stronger than expected in January (+3.1% m/m vs +2% est.). In the eurozone, the EC confidence indices are satisfactory: confidence in the economy has risen from 95.3 to 96.3, confidence in industry from -12.9 to -11.4 and confidence in services has fallen slightly from 6.7 to 6.2.

Planetary Boundaries

According to a study by the British Met Office (government agency for meteorology and climate) and the University of Exeter published in the journal Nature, the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), the main circulation system in the Atlantic Ocean, which plays a decisive role in regulating the climate, is not expected to collapse this century. On the other hand, it is “very likely to weaken, which will pose climate problems for Europe and beyond”, according to the study leader.

Markets

Economic disappointments in the US and geopolitical tensions pushed 10-year yields sharply lower, particularly in USD (-22bp; EUR: -7bp; CHF: -13bp). Despite these movements, the dollar appreciated by 1.2% (dollar index), reflecting a degree of risk aversion, also visible in the US equities underperformance (-1.1%; Europe: +0.6%; emerging markets: -4.4%). Gold (-2.7%) seems to be the victim of profit-taking after the sharp rise of recent weeks. Coming up this week: ISM manufacturing and services, employment report and consumer credit in the US; consumer and producer price indices, unemployment rate, ECB meeting and retail sales in the eurozone; manufacturing and services PMIs (Caixin and official), foreign exchange reserves and trade balance in China.

Swiss Market

Coming up this week: SNB final results for 2024, benchmark mortgage rate (OFL), PMI index for February 2025, consumer prices for February 2025 (FSO), unemployment for February 2025 (Seco) and foreign exchange reserves for February 2025 (SNB). The following companies are due to release results: Aryzta, Gurit, Forbo, VAT, Kühne+Nagel, Arbonia, Lindt&Sprüngli, On Holding, Orior, Sandoz, Comet, Kardex, Galderma, Geberit, Helvetia, Molecular Partners, Coltene, SFS, Flughafen Zürich and Mikron.

Equities

ING GROUP (Satellite): the group has announced the acquisition of a 17.6% stake in the private bank Van Lanschot. This shareholding is welcome as it increases the Group’s stake in stable and highly profitable activities.

SIG GROUP: we are removing SIG from the Swiss Convictions list. Management is embroiled in governance problems with its main shareholder, which is not helping market confidence, which has already been damaged. It’s a shame, because fundamentally the company is doing quite well.

SOCIETE GENERALE (Satellite): Société Générale is included in our banking recommendations. Thanks to a new management team, the group has embarked on a strategic repositioning whose results in terms of profitability and return to shareholders have already begun to be seen.

VOLKSWAGEN joins our Satellite recommendation on a speculative basis. The group is exposed to the risks of US tariffs and EU “CO2” fines in 2025, but the valuation is depressed and the restructuring announced in December, the EU Action Plan for the auto industry and the arrival in office of a “pro-business” coalition in Germany are all support factors that have little or no market integration.

Bonds

In the US, the 10Y lost 22bp on last week’s disappointing macro figures, with jobless claims higher than expected, building permits down m/m, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow pointing to a 1.5% contraction in GDP. In Europe, the OAT and the Bund lost 7bp, boosted by a lower-than-expected CPI in France and the election results in Germany. This week, all eyes will be on the US NFP figures on Friday to see whether or not the trend is confirmed.

Sentiment of traders

Stock markets

After a complicated week, especially in the US, the markets opened in the green this morning. In addition to geopolitical dithering, we will have ISM, durable goods orders and employment statistics in the US, while in the eurozone, unemployment, CPI and PPI will be published. Volatility is unlikely to fall.

Currencies

In a market focused on geopolitics, the euro weakens slightly to €/$ 1.0395 sup. 1.0300 res. 1.0510, with the confrontation between D.Trump and V.Zelensky weighing on the single currency. The ECB meets this week, and the market is expecting a 0.25% cut. Forex traders will be focusing on US and European employment figures. The CHF is strengthening against this tense backdrop to €/CHF 0.9370, sup. 0.9330 res. 0.9455. The ounce of gold is trading at $2863/Oz, sup. 2832 res. 2900.

Today’s graph

US consumer confidence chart 2015-2025 trends.

Performances

Financial data table for stock indices and commodities.

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