Economy

The statistics published in the United States were rather mixed. Small business confidence (NFIB index) deteriorated more than expected in March (from 100.7 to 97.4 vs. 99 est.). Similarly, household confidence, measured by the University of Michigan, collapsed from 57 to 50.8 in April (vs. 53.8 est.). Pending the impact of tariffs, the trend in consumer prices was reassuring in March: headline inflation slowed from 2.8% to 2.4% y/y (-0.1% m/m) and core inflation from 3.1% to 2.8% y/y (+0.1% m/m). In the eurozone, Sentix investor confidence fell more than expected in April (from -2.9 to -19.5 vs. -9 est.). Retail sales rose by 0.3% m/m in February and by 2.3% y/y (vs. 1.9% est.). In China, consumer prices (-0.1% y/y) and producer prices (-2.5% y/y) indicate that the risk of deflation has not been ruled out.

Planetary Boundaries

In a report published last week, the International Energy Agency estimates that the needs of AI could shake up the energy landscape in the years to come. Its needs are expected to more than double by 2030, with an estimated consumption of 945 TWh: equivalent to the total electricity consumption of Germany and France today. In the United States, AI-related electricity consumption will account for more than half of the growth in total electricity demand.

Markets

The partial U-turn on US tariffs enabled US equities to rebound strongly (+5.7%). Elsewhere, equities are still lagging (Europe: -1.9%; emerging markets: -3.9%). Sovereign 10-year yields rose sharply in the US (+50bp!) and in the UK (+30bp), but not in EUR or CHF (-4bp). The dollar index depreciated by 1.8% despite the rise in interest rates. Gold regains its protective qualities and rebounds by 6.3%. Coming up this week: retail sales, industrial production, housing confidence (NAHB index), housing starts and building permits in the United States; industrial production and ECB meeting in the eurozone; trade balance, Q1 GDP, retail sales, industrial production and investments in China.

Swiss Market

Coming up this week: producer and import prices, March accommodation statistics (FSO); 1st quarter watch exports (FSO). The following companies will publish results or sales figures: Burkhalter, Meyer Burger, Sika, Sulzer, Gurit, VAT, ABB, Bystronic, Villars, R&S, Cicor, Comco. Pierer Mobility will hold an extraordinary general meeting to restructure its balance sheet.

Equities

ALPHABET (Core Holdings) has confirmed its target of $75 billion in Capex by 2025, despite the uncertainties associated with the new tariffs. This decision is aimed at consolidating its position in the AI race (via Gemini and its infrastructure in particular), while fears of a disruption of search by chatbots continue to weigh on the stock, despite an undemanding valuation multiple (PE fwd of 17x).

BYD (Satellite): according to Automotive News, the group could speed up the launch of Plug-In hybrid models imported from China. These would then not be subject to the additional tariffs recently announced by the EU, which apply only to battery-powered electric vehicles.

TSMC (Satellite) has reported preliminary sales up 42% in Q1 2025, slightly ahead of expectations. But the market remains focused on the risk of new tariff barriers, which are overshadowing the quality of the results for the time being. The full quarterly report is due on 17 April, as is ASML’s this week (16 April).



Bonds

US yields were highly volatile due to the uncertainty surrounding the tariff announcements, with the 10y gaining 50bp and the 30y 46bp, the highest since Trump’s inauguration. The poor macro figures published (NFIB below expectations, consumer sentiment in free fall) were not enough to reverse the trend. European yields were less volatile, with the 10y Bund ending the week down 1bp and the 10y OAT up 2bp. The markets will be watching the US administration’s forthcoming announcements this week.

Sentiment of traders

Stock markets

The markets are off to a flying start this week with Trump’s umpteenth U-turn on tariffs. There will be the ECB meeting on Thursday (-0.25% expected), but also retail sales and building permits in the US, while in the eurozone the ZEW and industrial production figures will be published. Not forgetting the quarterly results from GS, JnJ, LVMH, ASML and L’Oréal.

Currencies

The constant reversals in US policy are throwing traders into uncertainty. The 90-day exemption from tariffs has pushed the €/$ up to 1.1408, and a break of the res. 1.1530 sup. 1.1205 would open the way to 1.2025. The $/CHF remains under pressure at 0.8160, we remain negative this week, a test of sup. 0.8000 is possible, res. 0.8290. The CHF remains in demand at €/CHF 0.9298 sup. 0.9100, res. 0.9495. The £ rebounds against the $ to 1.3155 sup. 1.2730 res. 1.3215. Gold soars to $3233/oz, sup. 3076 res. 3300.

Today’s graph

US Headline vs Core-CPI monthly and yearly graph.

Performances

Financial market indices and rates as of April 2025.

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